In Brazil, a Labor Market Bubble?

This might be the kind of bubble you want, one in which nearly the entire country has a job despite an economic slowdown. Brazil’s unemployment rate is at historic lows, under 6%. Wages are rising, adding to inflation as working class consumers spend. In an event in Paris last week, Brazil’s Minister of Finance Guido Mantega said that while Brazil did not face a credit bubble — a warning that the International Monetary Fund made public last month — its labor market was “a little overheated”.
Mantega’s comments got analysts over at Nomura in New York thinking. Tony Volpon, a senior strategist for Latin America, says that Brazil’s labor markets are more than “a little” overheated. “In fact we see evidence of bubble-like behavior in recent wage and hiring increases. If there is one place in the Brazilian economy where a bubble has developed, this is it,” Volpon said in a note to clients on July 13.
What would constitute a bubble in a labor market? As an input to the productive process, companies hire extra staffers until its cost is equal to a maximum of its marginal product value. If the company wants to keep its widget making profit margins at 10 in order to pay shareholders and keep the lights on, then in theory it shouldn’t hire more staff employees if margins are lowered below the company target.
Expecting greater revenue growth is not by itself a sufficient reason to hire more workers, since the cost of the marginal labor being hired (considering its productivity) is growing faster than marginal revenues. In these conditions companies will see their profit margins squeezed. This should lead companies to lower their demand for labor, either by hiring or by paying less or by substituting capital for labor, Volpon says.
Are Brazilian companies over-estimating demand for Brazilian goods abroad and in the local market? The economy has slowed from over 7% growth last year to 5.1% growth for the 12 months ending in the first quarter and is expected to top out at 4% this year. Yet, the labor market is going gangbusters even as the economy is clearly cooling off. The strong demand for labor may be a temporary result of Brazilian companies refusing to translate slower economic growth to their estimates of demand for their own goods and services. When, and if, they realize this mistake, production in Brazil will slow.
Recent Central Bank monetary policy maker meeting minutes has been more focused on briging inflation to the center of the target in 2012, which would put it at around 4.5%. Statements by Mantega hint that any end of year inflation result below the top of the inflation band of 6.5% is OK with him, so long as inflation is not over that, and it won’t be. The recent decision to extend the current inflation target into 2013 with no change, even though it is one of the highest and widest among inflation targeting countries, is another signal that disinflation is not an overarching policy priority in Brazil, Volpon thinks.
“And most damaging, the decision to maintain for next year the double indexation of the minimum wage, which will see this key benchmark for wages in the red-hot service sector rise by something close to 14% in nominal terms next year,” he said, adding that the minimum wage increase, put off this year, will provide another boost to inflation by giving people even more money to spend.
From Volpon’s report at Nomura:
While we think the above factors may well explain still strong labor demand in an environment of falling growth and productivity, this demand is still ultimately unsustainable. There is no escaping the fact that paying up for less productive labor inputs in an environment of falling real growth will generate profit margin compression. Firms may indeed find it harder to find qualified workers, and so act as if demand curves are upward sloping (the true configuration of bubble-like behavior in any market), but paying more as prices rise is self-defeating behavior and will be reversed as profits fall. We believe this is part of the explanation as to why Brazil‟s Bovespa index is one of the worst performing of the major equity markets in the world this year. Labor market behavior may have acquired bubble-like characteristics in Brazil, but as growth continues to falter and the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening continue to hit the economy, and especially the already over indebted consumer, labor market conditions will finally weaken.

Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2011/07/15/in-brazil-a-labor-market-bubble/

Higher skills provide growing job opportunities as general labour demand slows down

Higher skills remain important for employment opportunities, the latest European Vacancy Monitor shows. The number of job finders in the ‘professionals’ group continued to grow the most in the third quarter 2011 in comparison to the same quarter in 2010 (+16%) while the number of job seekers who found jobs as legislators, senior officials and managers has grown by 13%.
There are further signs of a weakening trend in labour demand since the second quarter 2011. According to Eurostat data an increasing number of countries experienced shrinking number of vacancies. This has had implications for the notification of vacancies to public employment services resulting in a mixed picture: while 10 EU countries mark a positive growth up to 116% in Estonia, 9 public employment services show a negative development down to -37 % in the Netherlands. Recent figures on job vacancies for temporary agency workers also show a continued decline.
A special section dedicated to the development of labour demand in Denmark, known for its flexicurity model, shows a specific reaction to the crisis:

• decline in job vacancies affecting strongly the notification of vacancies to public employment services (PESs) compared to the average of 10 European PESs
• high job mobility with a ratio of 10 employees to one job finder compared to a ratio of 15 to one in the 27 EU countries on average
• rather low share of temporary work with 8,5 % of all employees compared to 13,9 % in the 27 EU countries.

European Job Mobility Bulletin
According to the April issue of the European Job Mobility Bulletin, based on the vacancies published on the EURES portal, the top jobs in demand were:

1. Shop salespersons
2. Finance and sales associate professionals
3. Housekeeping and restaurant services workers
4. Electrical and electronical equipment mechanics and fitters
5. Modern health associated professionals.

Additionally, the bulletin shows there are good employment opportunities for:

• Personal care and related workers
• Machinery mechanics and fitters
• Architects, engineers and related professionals
• Administrative associate professionals
• Computing professionals

Source: http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?langId=en&catId=822&newsId=1283&furtherNews=yes

Women fared better in the job market

Women posted their best month of job gains in April since the recession ended nearly three years ago, a factor that could help boost their support for President Obama. 

While women workers have largely held their own through the recession, an analysis by the National Women’s Law Center shows that they gained 73 percent of the 115,000 jobs added in April — the largest share of monthly job gains for women since the start of the recovery in June 2009, based on data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"Today’s data show that while most of April’s modest job gains went to women, there’s still a long way to go to reach a full recovery for women and men," said Joan Entmacher, vice president for Family Economic Security at the NWLC. 

"This is not the time to cut back on programs that create jobs and help families get back on their feet.”

Entmacher criticized the upcoming vote on a reconciliation bill in the House Budget Committee next week that would trade automatic cuts in a congressional sequester for others to programs such as food stamps, Medicaid, funding for services for children and seniors and tax credits to make health insurance affordable.

"These measures would cripple families and the economy," she said. 

During the recovery, between June 2009 and April, women have gained only 16 percent of the nearly 2.5 million net jobs added in the recovery.

In the private sector, women gained 62 percent of the 130,000 private-sector jobs added in April and 26 percent — or 800,000 — of the nearly 3.1 million jobs added overall, according to the analysis. 

Men, who had a steeper hill to climb on the jobs front, have gained the majority of positions through the recovery, which has seen the labor market gradually healing. 

The largest job gains for women in April appeared in the professional and business services sectors, which include temporary help services, private education and health, and leisure and hospitality jobs. Women also picked up jobs in the expanding manufacturing sector. 

The public sector lost 15,000 net jobs last month, with men bearing all of the losses, while women gained 4,000 public sector jobs. 

During the recovery, the public sector has lost 601,000 net jobs — two-thirds of which (400,000) were held by women. Losses in the public sector have dragged on a more robust labor market recovery. 

The overall unemployment rate for adult women was unchanged at 7.4 percent in April, while adult men’s rate declined slightly to 7.5 percent. 

Since the start of the recovery, adult women’s unemployment rate has dropped by only 0.2 percentage points, while men’s unemployment rate has declined by 2.4 percentage points.  

The long-term unemployment rate — the percentage of unemployed workers looking for jobs for 27 weeks or longer — increased for adult women last month to 45.2 percent, while the long-term rate for adult men rose to 47.4 percent. 

The long-term unemployment rates for both adult women and men are substantially higher than at the start of the recovery, the analysis said. 

“There aren’t enough jobs for everyone who wants to work and millions of Americans are still struggling to meet their basic needs,” Entmacher said.  

Women’s substantial losses in the public sector have driven their small overall job gains in the recovery. In fact, for every two jobs women gained in the private sector during the recovery, they lost one in the public sector.

Women are nearly 50 percent more likely to work in the public sector than men, according to a Labor Department report in 2010. 

By Vicky Needham

Source: http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/economy/225541-women-fared-better-in-the-job-market-in-april

Dress for success on next job interview

10 tricks for avoiding missteps, making the best impression

With the economy continuing to flounder, more and more people are finding themselves on an unexpected side of the desk: The side where the interviewee sits.

As if job interviews and crowded career fairs weren’t stressful enough, there’s also the anxiety of figuring out what to wear. How can you tell how dressed-up — or dressed-down — you can go?

The answer to that question will vary considerably based on the kind of job you’re seeking, but the following tips provide a basic guide for how to proceed. Read on so you can tackle those interviews with confidence.

1. Opt for a conservative look, not an outlandish one. Whether you’re trying for a top executive position or a job that will require you to roll up your sleeves and get dirty, attire that is distracting is a no-no. In most cases it makes sense to choose simple, understated styles and colors — blues and grays, for example. Black also could work, so long as you won’t be mistaken for an undertaker or a Johnny Cash wannabe. To avoid that fate, soften up your look by wearing another color near your face.

2. When in doubt, ask. If you’re honestly not sure what kind of dress would be most appropriate for an interview with a particular employer, call the company and ask for some guidance. Don’t bother the hiring manager with this; instead, call the human resources department and say, “I have an interview with So-and-So in the Such-and-Such department for a position as a _____. Could you let me know what would be appropriate dress for this interview?”

3. Dress for the job you really want.Some hiring managers recommend dressing one or two levels up from the position you’re seeking. The point behind this would be to show that you’re a serious job candidate who cares about making a good impression.

4. Accessorize with great care. This isn’t the time to go with wild nail polish, jangle-y jewelry, face jewelry, ankle bracelets, strong perfumes or colognes, brightly colored or printed purses or briefcases, scuffed briefcases, open-toed shoes, backless shoes or bare legs. All of your accessories should be understated, inconspicuous and professional.

5. Cleanliness is next to employability. Clean, pressed clothes are important, of course, but here are some other key areas to remember: Have clean, polished shoes in good repair, clean, groomed hair and fingernails, well-brushed teeth, fresh breath and absolutely no body odor.

6. Stay up to date. For men, suits and tie patterns can look dated if they’ve been hanging in your closet for several years. Even worse, your suit might be tight on you at this stage of the game. The same goes for women’s suits and dress-shirt patterns. To find out whether you’re looking a little bit too 1996, ask a trusted friend to help you assess your professional wardrobe.

7. Don’t wear these items! Just say no to: short skirts; capri pants; leggings; leather jackets for men or women; or turtlenecks for men. Men should wear collared shirts on job interviews — and in almost every situation, a tie won’t hurt your cause.

8.Your own common sense and good judgment should prevail. If you know for sure that wearing a tie on a particular interview wouldn’t be the right thing to do, then don’t do it. Same for a formal business suit. But don’t stubbornly think that this is the time to make a flashy fashion statement. Instead, this is the time to make sure your appearance doesn’t distract in any way from all the good information you have to share about yourself.

9. There’s no need to break the bank. Some of these tips might make you think that you need to rush out and drop hundreds of dollars on fancy new suits and shoes. That’s not true. You can find professional clothes on sale at deep discounts at major department stores and discount retailers, and you often can find new or barely used suits and dress shirts at thrift stores. Also, nonprofit organizations such as Dress for Success help disadvantaged women throughout North America and in other countries to get outfitted for job interviews so they can get on the path to financial independence. For ideas about how to spend very little money on clothing, read this past 10 Tips column on the subject .

10. Set aside enough time for a final once-over. Before you walk into the actual job interview, slip into the restroom and look in the mirror. Is your tie flipped around? Do you have any food in your teeth? Is your hair standing straight up? If not, you’re good to go!

By Laura T. Coffey

Source: http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/29241014/ns/today-money/t/dress-success-next-job-interview/#.UC0LePaPVjs

College graduates enjoy best job market in years

By Michael L. Diamond, Asbury Park (N.J.) Press

The class of 2012 is leaving U.S. colleges with something that many graduates since the start of the Great Recession have lacked: jobs.

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"It's a very unsettled entry-level job market, but I remain optimistic that there are at least these positive signs," said Richard White, director of career services at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, N.J.

In some ways, members of the class of 2012 got lucky. They arrived on campus in September 2008, the same month that Wall Street investment bank Lehman Bros. collapsed, touching off a financial crisis that exacerbated the recession.

On campus, they were largely insulated from the collapsing U.S. economy. While older brothers and sisters graduated into a dismal job market, they took shelter in chemistry, philosophy and literature classes.

They used their college years to prepare for the brutal realities of the job market that would await them. They began networking for jobs much earlier, as freshmen in some cases. They pursued summer internships not simply as resume booster, but as gateways to permanent jobs. And they developed more realistic expectations about landing a job in the ideal place and at the ideal salary.

Rebecca Wishbow, a nursing graduate from Georgian Court University in Lakewood, N.J., was drawn to the field after her own fight with leukemia in high school. And she gained valuable experience working as a patient care associate at Ocean Medical Center in Brick, N.J., as early as her freshman year.

Wishbow said she doesn't have a job lined up yet since she still has to pass a test to become a registered nurse. But she's hopeful.

"As we graduate, all of us (in the nursing program) are starting to realize what an advantage we're at," said Wishbow, now five years leukemia free and considered cured. "We all feel pretty comfortable and pretty safe we'll get jobs. It's a good feeling."

What’s in demand?

According to a survey by CareerBuilder.com, business tops the list of the most in-demand college majors for employers, with technical majors following closely behind.

Business: 39%
Computer and information sciences: 24%
Engineering: 23%
Math and statistics: 13%
Health professions and related clinical sciences: 13%
Communications technologies:12%
Liberal arts and sciences: 9%

Source: CareerBuilder.com

On campuses across the country, spirits are more upbeat this spring, and the employment outlook is especially promising, according to interviews with three dozen seniors and career center directors.

Between September 2008 and August 2010, 6.9 million American jobs were eliminated. In the past year and a half, 3.1 million jobs have been created. The strengthening job market has made a big difference to seniors who are job-hunting in their final semester.

The unemployment rate for college graduates 24 and under averaged 7.2% from January through April. That rate, which is not adjusted for seasonal factors, is down from the first four months of 2011 (9.1%), 2010 (8.1%) and 2009 (7.8%). For all Americans, the unemployment rate is 8.1 percent.

"It's just been such a dramatic change from what we saw in 2008," said Mercy Eyadiel, who oversees career development at Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem, N.C. Back then, openings disappeared overnight and companies were calling recent graduates to rescind offers.

Wake Forest senior Lesley Gustafson started her job search during her freshman year and in March was offered a job with consulting firm Accenture.

"I knew I would find something," Gustafson says. "I was more nervous finding something that I would be interested in rather than having to take a job just to take one."

Some college career centers said they are getting more interest from employers. Monmouth University in West Long Branch, N.J., this spring had its best employer turnout for a job fair since 2006. And it had close to 900 postings for full-time jobs, up 15% from last year, said William Hill, assistant dean of career services.

"Is the job market for seniors as robust as you'd want it to be? I don't think so," Hill said. "But there are reasons to be hopeful, and the job market is improving."

The job market remains tough, even for those graduating from the best universities. Hiring is not back to its pre-recession level and plenty of seniors are leaving campuses without jobs. Moreover, White said, new graduates are competing for entry-level jobs with graduates from recent years.

Yet this year's graduates are less likely to face the disappointment of moving back in with Mom and Dad, or being forced to work at a coffee shop to pay off loans.

Students' expectations have changed, writing off the dream job in favor of stepping-stone positions that hopefully will lead to better opportunities. Not that they had much choice; pay for new graduates fell 10% during the recession, according to the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers. Few expect it to climb back soon.

Despite the lower pay, students today have more confidence in the job market. Two years ago, career directors say, seniors were so afraid of the recession that they flocked to graduate schools to wait out the dark times.

That trend is reversing. The number of U.S. students taking admissions exams for graduate business school and law school are down 8% and 16%.

Contributing: The Associated Press

Source: http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/credit/story/2012-05-21/more-jobs-for-college-grads/55107174/1

You've Lost Your Job. What's Next?

This is a devastating reality for many workers in this economy, especially older employees who currently average 53.6 weeks of unemployment before finding another job.
Everyone’s circumstances are different. If you’ve been a long-standing employee earning a progressive salary and benefits, you may be eligible for a severance package, health insurance under COBRA (the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act) if your former employer offers it and you can afford it, and unemployment insurance. Together, these might give you the time and financial resources to stay on top of your bills until you land your next job.
If you’ve established an emergency fund covering at least six months of regular expenses, you may feel less anxious if you become unemployed. But for most, panic, understandably, is the obvious response to job loss.

A recent study, "Temporary Derailment or the End of the Line? Managers Coping With Unemployment at 50," looked at coping strategies of people whose identities were wrapped up in position, status and achievements, and who were laid off late in their careers.

The study identified three types of mindset common to those who had suffered job loss: 

1. Temporary derailment: These people were unwilling to concede their careers had ended and feverishly looked for employment.
2. End of the line: These people felt hopeless and bitter. They believed their careers were finished and didn’t look for employment or only looked erratically.
3. Moratorium: These people accepted their job loss as beyond their control. They separated their identities from their jobs and pursued positive options such as temporary positions, education and volunteering.

The study focused on managers and other professionals, but just about everyone would most likely respond in one of these ways after losing a job.

Once you get past the initial shock of unemployment, it's important to keep a positive frame of mind, even during such a stressful time. It's also important to acknowledge and grieve job loss as a major life trauma, especially if you've invested years in a company. But it's crucial to look at things rationally and begin to make a new career plan.

One woman wrote an article about her husband's layoff, describing how they'd seen "the writing on the wall" ahead of time. The husband had worked more than 20 years for the same company. Although it was painful, the couple started strategizing before the pink slip arrived.

Like this couple, if you know the layoff is coming, do your best to prepare in advance. Update your résumé now. Think about future work opportunities within and outside your current field. What's the growing industry in your area — do you have related skills or can you develop them? What about networking?

Don't wait until you're laid off to connect with potential links to your next job, and make sure to investigate the myriad approaches to job searches.

Also examine your bills and spending habits. Find ways to cut back and pay off as many debts as possible. If your children are grown and gone, consider downsizing and spending less on rent or mortgage. This may free up money to help with current expenses or future needs.

There's no "easy" button or guaranteed formula for recovering from job loss. Dealing with job loss, or planning for the possibility, calls for staying calm and focused while maintaining true grit and determination. These are critical factors for weathering the current tide of unemployment. AARP is here to help.

Source: http://www.aarp.org/work/job-hunting/info-06-2011/lost-your-job.3.html
Jon Dauphiné is a senior vice president at AARP.

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Great Resumes

As a professional resume writer and former reviewer, I see all kinds of resumes and, honestly, most of them make me sigh. Those crucial pages are a minefield of details and subconscious psychological effects that most people don't have the time, energy, or proclivity to master. Add to that the unfortunate necessity of tailoring each resume and cover letter you submit to the specific job description and company, and you have an obvious explanation for the prodigious volume of unprofessional and visually unappealing documents that clutter their way to an employer's desk.

Writing a resume is like painting a picture. It is not a fill-in-the-blank exercise or an autobiography, but rather a concise portrait of your professional strengths and abilities whose purpose is to immediately convey to any potential employer his or her fortune in finding you. When I start working on a client's resume, I take the whole story into consideration before making a single change. First, I look at the number of years and the field the person has worked in and/or wants to work in, and then I can start strategizing on format. The process almost takes on a chicken-or-the-egg flavor since phrasing and format can dually influence one another. It definitely requires some juggling ability (just like making eggs and toast with the goal of eating everything hot the first time around).

As a window into the world of the resume reviewer, try to sample as many resumes and cover letters as you can. Ask you friends, look online, take any opportunity you can to look at incoming applications in your office or department. Never pass up a chance to have someone critique your own resume. The exposure will not only give you a better understanding of current trends, but will also help you determine what styles you like and dislike. A staffing company interviewer or college career counselor can be great resources when creating and editing your documents and trust me, this is one area where you need to welcome brutal honesty.

While the word choice and phrasing may be tricky for those who escaped the English and grammar geek gene, what you can do, at the very least, is make sure you have used ONE font (Times New Roman, generally), consistent sizing, and perfectly consistent spacing throughout. The human eye naturally looks for symmetry and patterns and can spot irregularities instantly. The person may not know exactly what bothers him/her, but that gut feeling, even before he/she reads a word of your brilliantly composed masterpiece, sticks to your application and the first impression you have now given is that you are not the careful and conscientious, detail-oriented candidate they are looking for.

That is one irony I would like to point out: if you claim "attention to detail" as an attribute or strength, you must be ready to edit your resume and cover letter at least 5 times, in addition to subjecting it to outside opinion. The most embarrassing thing you can do is send in an application whose very appearance disproves your claims.

Another word of advice: do your research on power words for resumes. There are countless articles that focus on that aspect of the writing process and there is no excuse for poor phrasing. Your cover letter and resume are visual markers of self-esteem and you must sell yourself and study the going buzz words that employers are looking for. For example, if your current job is mainly cleaning the floors of a nursing home, that can translate into "supporting client/patient hygiene and health." It is - but it's about the picture you're painting.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/7222600